Futurist offers peek into society's crystal ball
I
Photo by Mwi Widdrr
Futurist Burke Raymond says society is leaving the industrial age and entering the information age,
which will spell decreased emphasis on organizations and increased importance on individuals.
By Michael Doke
Of the Emrrdld
Looking into the future is no
longer a trick of gypsies and
crystal balls, but a real concern for
society, said Burke Raymond, a
Portland futurist consultant, Mon
day at the Valley River Inn.
Future decisions must not be
based on past trends, Raymond
said. Society is moving away from
the hierarchical industrial age
toward the "information age," a
period of more open
communication.
"It is our option, and duty, to
choose the future we want," said
Raymond, a consultant with the
firm of Burke, Roth and
Associates.
"Choices we do not have the
courage to make could spell the
end of human history.
"World institutions, like govern
ments, are frozen," Raymond told
officials at an annual meeting of
the Oregon Public Health Associa
tion and the Conference of Local
Health.
"We cannot rely on govern
ments for control. We, the people.
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must rely on ourselves to create
society," he said.
Individuals are more important
than organizations in the new age.
Therefore, the need for expres
sion becomes much more evi-^
dent, he said.
The new age will stress en
trepreneurships, and the ac
cumulation of capital will lose its
prominence, he said.
Knowledge will become the
new raw material of the informa
tion era. It is the single most im
portant development individuals
can have, Raymond said. In an age
where information comes quickly,
shared knowledge will benefit
everyone.
Conventional social structure
will disband along with decen
tralization, Raymond said.
Organizations based on the
hierarchy model cannot survive
this transition.
Movement into the new era will
affect society's driving forces, in
cluding values, learning, health,
economics, governance and
technology, he said.
The overriding concern of the
future, Raymond said, is the "very
real prospect of nuclear war."
Arms buildup is a holdover from
the industral age, he said.
Raymond called the peace
movement the most important
cause today because people are
taking charge of their own
destiny, thereby strengthening
society.
The women's movement is
another strong sociological force
that is changing values, Raymond
said.
Learning becomes more impor
tant in the information age, too,
he said. Instead of a time-frame
structure where learning ends at a
set age, education becomes a
lifelonp nursuit.
Raymond noted that the average
age of college students is increas
ing. More professional people are
heading back to the classroom.
And given the chance to par
ticipate in the system more, high
school students become more ac
tive with studies.
Health concerns are moving
from repair-oriented service to
preventative medicine. Physical
fitness' increasing populararity is
one sign of this, Raymond said.
"However, an increase in
physical awareness has grave con
sequences for the established
medical insitutions," he said. A
trend toward higher drug
dependency continues.
Economics and working at
titudes are changing as well, Ray
mond said. Full consumption
means full* employment but
dwindling resources. Again, Ray
mond cited knowledge as the "in
finite solution."
Governments will have a smaller
role in the information age and
soon it will be "absurd" for
leaders to think they can make
decisions without consulting the
public, Raymond said.
"We will have information just
as fast as they will. This will mean
real democracy," he said.
Finally, technological advances
will affect society profoundly, Ray
mond said. Computers and robots
are the issues of the 1980s, while
genetic engineering will be the
concern of the 1990s.
"The ability to make changes in
DNA will be a reality. Birth defects
will be curbed. Real decisions will
have to be made on sex and race
quotas," he said.
By moving toward education
and medical research, Oregon's
economy would benefit, Raymond
said. High-technology soon will
be passe.
"The choices of the future are
not clear. The ground continues
to move. But we do control our
own destiny and we must not be
passive."