Forecasters hired
to be scapegoats I
Economic forecasters often
are hired as scapegoats by
businesses and government,
said Barry Seigel, a University
ecomonics professor.
"They're covering their pos
.jriors," he said. "Forecasters
are hired to make the mistakes
because the chief executive
can’t afford to Then he can say
'I had the best advice and if the
best scientific minds can't do it
right, how can you expect me
to?' "
Siegel, who has been "rum
maging around" in the area of
economic forecasting, present
ed his findings at a Friday
seminar attended by economics
professors and students
Historically, forecasters had a
“spectacular failure" in the
1920s when they predicted the
stock market would continue to
rise, but instead it fell, he said
Forecasters also "fell on their
faces" after World War II when a
depression with no inflation was
predicted and prosperity with
inflation resulted, Siegel said
"Forecasters tend to do well
during stable periods," he said.
Considering the inaccuracy
of many reports from economic
forecasters, Siegel said it's
remarkable how many of them
are in the work force He es
timated thousands of
forecasters work for business,
industry and the government
Biases of the forecasters may
contribute to their mistakes,
Seigel said. For example, fore
casters who believe in Keyne
sian economic theories tend to
base their predictions on that
framework, he said
But Siegel said in many cases,
businesses don't just want the
forecast, they also want the in
formation, data and models the
economist uses to make the
predictions. They also may want
the name and reputation of the
economist to back them up, he
said.
Bomb duo penalized
A University couple who ad
mitted to making a campus
bomb threat on Oct 25 will
receive 50 hours of community
service and a year of student
probation each, says Vernon
Barkhurst, associate dean of
students
Barkhurst, who also is student
conduct coordinator, sen
tenced the two students after
they admitted to the misdeed
and waived their right to a con
tested public hearing as set
down in Oregon’s code of
student conduct
The bomb threat, which was
phoned to the EMU Main Desk
and Campus Security, forced
the evacuation of a midterm for
an organic chemistry class
Both students were enrolled in
the course
Barkhurst sentenced the man
and the woman to 100 hours of
community service each with
half those hours suspended
The suspended hours will be
imposed if either of the students
fail to complete the first 50
hours by the end of winter term,
he says
Any further violations of
student code within their one
year probationary periods
would require consideration of
more severe punishment, he
says
The couple was reported to
security by a student who over
heard them joking to one an
other about the incident, he
says The student had read
previously an article about the
incident in the Emerald, he says
Although the bomb threat
caused no damage or injury,
Barkhurst considered the
danger of a freak accident re
sulting from the evacuation of
the threatened class a serious
possibility, he says The incon
venience to those whose mid
terms were cancelled because
of the interruption also figured
into Barkhurst's decision
But Barkhurst also weighed
the students' admission of guilt
and willingness to cooperate in
his decision
"What it amounts to is a dumb
stunt," he says.
Interested in finance?
When University senior Tom
Boyle tried to join the campus
finance club, he found there
wasn't one to join So he is
starting his own club
More than 20 students have
expressed interest in joining the
club so far, he says
"That's just about right for the
beginning," Boyle says.
He says they are not sure
where they will get funding.
They will apply for incidental fee
monies, but they also may look
at charging an initiation fee and
having fundraising events
Boyle says the club's purpose
will be to give students interest
ed in finance a chance to meet
with each other, talk with
professors and give people a
better grasp of finance
“You say the words finance
major’ to the average person,
and they see you as one hop
and a skip away from a pinstripe
suit and Wall Street,’’ says
Boyle. “But finance is a very
wide field.”
Boyle stresses the Finance
Club will be open to anyone, not
just finance majors The club
will hold a meeting today at 7
p m. in Room 338 Gilbert
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