Civil MFiMSI
Basic relocation plan is in works
but poor planning and facilities could
force most people to beat a hasty retreat
By David Steinmetz
Of th« Emerald
w hat would you do in the event of nuclear
war7
If you are planning to rely on an extensive,
well-prepared civil defense plan, you may be
disappointed
A three-megaton bomb, when exploded at
optimal' height above the ground — producing
the most destruction — could cause "initial
effects" in a 10-mile radius, says Sergeant Ned
Heasty of the Sheriff's Office and assistant
director of the Lane County Emergency
Services
Initial effects would include over- and
under-pressure due to the blast, shockwaves
through the ground, fires and high heat and
initial radiation effects Fallout would follow,
contaminating this area and surrounding
areas
The City of Eugene has a Basic Disaster
Operations Plan, which includes a warning
system to all city departments and the general
public, a City Emergency Operations Center
and radiological defense capability
But in the event of nuclear war, all of Lane
County and parts of other counties nearby may
need to be relocated.
With the center of the blast estimated to be
right above the Lane County Public Service
Building at 8th Avenue and Oak Street, where
the Emergency Services office is located, the
initial effects would reach east to include all of
Springfield, north almost to Junction City, west
to Fern Ridge Lake and south to Creswell and
Pleasant Hill.
Of the 273,000 people living in Lane County,
203,000 live in this high-risk area
Lane County's civil defense plan divides this
endangered area into 10 sections and maps
the routes which residents of each section
would take to outlying areas
Those evacuated would stay in fallout
shelters in these areas for a couple of weeks
until the radiation level is low enough, Heasty
says
A command center would be set up in the
basement of the county building to direct
evacuation
The plan pre-supposes enough warning to
give the people time to move — two or three
days
University residents would end up in Coos
County, along with those living generally to the
northwest and south of the University These
two sectors, eight and six, include 90,000
people
However, Lane County’s civil defense plan is
so tentative and insufficiently researched the
plan’s specifics are unavailable to the public,
Heasty says
"We re doing whatever we can (to prepare),
but it's not very much," Heasty says
Heasty says the plan has developed the
geographical aspects of relocation the most
"What are we going to do with them once
they get there?" he asks.
Phil Cogan, Region 10 Federal Emergency
Management Agency director, is more op
timistic
"Until you have a plan, you wing it,” and due
to the nature of the state, county and city
agencies, they are ready to respond to
unplanned emergencies, as shown by many
examples, Cogan says
In the case of nuclear war, it is estimated that
a three-megaton weapon is targeted for
Eugene, one of five "high-risk" areas in
Oregon, Heasty says
Although attack priority would probably go
to areas with counter-defensive forces, military
bases and industrial centers, Eugene would be
targeted because of its population of more
than 50,000 and its resources — food, hos
pitals, communications and transportation, he
says
The relocation plan "just appeared" last
October, after being drawn up in Bothell,
Washington Bothell is headquarters for
Region 10, a federal emergency district which
includes Oregon, Washington, Alaska and
Idaho
Cogan says it is "not a good plan” because it
is was not custom-made specifically to fit the
situation.
Extensively researched, more comprehen
sive plans are being worked out by contract
planners for each potential target area in
region 10 But plans for the higher-risk areas,
such as Seattle — which base Trident subma
rines — are being done first
Lane County's lack of preparation is the
result of Eugene s fortune as a relatively low
risk target
More comprehensive plans take into
account food, water, fallout shelters, blast
shelters, medical services, communications
and housing
The original comprehensive plan was
scheduled for completion by 1984, Heasty
says
But it will be the end of the decade before
"the bulk of the plans are done," Cogan says
He says lack of funding is delaying completion
of the plan
£ ivil defense funding in the United States
^ reached its peak in the 1960s after the
Cuban missile crisis Now Switzerland,
Sweden, Denmark and the USSR outspend the
United States
Although civil defense is still "not a high
priority," Cogan says this trend is reversing,
with the FEMA receiving moderate' increase
in its budget this year
The agency now receives $154 million, a $29
million increase from last year's budget This
comes to about 55 cents per person per year
FEMA provides up to 50 percent of funding
for state and local emergency agencies, which
are set up to "get more mileage out of this
money," Cogan says
The plans, hardware and personnel for civil
defense are similiar to those used in other
emergencies, such as natural disasters or
evacuation for hazardous materials.
Along the Gulf of Mexico, for instance, the
routes used to escape a hurricane are often
the same as would be used to relocate in the
case of nuclear war
The Lane County agency spends much more
of its time rescuing injured climbers, finding
lost hikers and searching for downed aircraft
than it does preparing for a nuclear disaster
Yet it receives 30 percent of its funding from
FEMA
Cogan says former President Jimmy Carter
chose the plan because it provided the most
for the money
For $80 to $120 billion, 80 to 90 percent of
the population could be sheltered from nuclear
blast in blast shelters located within the high
risk areas
Alternatively, 80 percent of the people could
be protected by relocating them from the
danger areas and housing them in faiiout
shelters at a cost of $8 billion over a number of
years
The cheaper plan also could be used for
other emergencies, such as hazardous mater
ial evacuation, Cogan says.
m last and fallout shelters serve different
* functions Blast shelters are built to
withstand the blast and initial effects of the
bomb, and fallout shelters are designed to
protect against fallout and are cheaper to
build
The occasional fallout shelter designations
in Eugene would not apply in the case of a
nuclear attack, because they do not protect
against the blast, Heasty says.
The relocation plan assumes that there will
be warning enough to give people time to
move Without it, the plan would be virtually
useless, Heasty says
Dick Straw, a Eugene Emergency Medical
Services instructor who would help set up the
medical command post in such an emergency,
says there will be only about 15 minutes notice
Then "we ll have to see what's left," Straw
says
Planning would not help much because not
only would it be impossible to move the people
in time but also it would not be known what
supplies, routes or rescuers would be left after
the disaster hit
"The number one rule of disaster planning is
if you don't have it there, you don't have it,"
Straw says
Even if there was more time, successfully
moving 203,000 people out of the Eugene
Springfield area would be chaos, Straw says
"Just look at the clogged traffic we have at
five.”
. Both Heasty and Cogan admit the plan
would not work if an attack was in progress
"If we received an attack notice right now.
there's nothing we could do." Heasty says
But the Soviet plan to move people from all
major cities to rural areas Is estimated to take
three to five days, and so the U S intelligence
system could monitor this and deteriorating
relations to know when a war may break out, he
says
Relocating in such a situation would keep
people from being held hostage, Heasty says,
but "the impact of that (relocation) on the
country would be drastic," both economically
and sociologically
The governor of each state decides when
relocation is necessary after considering the
president's recommendations to them and the
public, Cogan says
Relocation is also voluntary for the public,
even if the governor initiates it
Cogan estimates that about 15 percent of
those who could relocate will stay behind and
that another 15 to 20 percent already will have
moved by the time the suggestion to relocate is
given
Therefore, only about 65 percent of those in
a high-risk area would have to be relocated
within the lead-time before an attack, Cogan
says
Nevertheless, plans that allow 100 percent of
the population of every high-risk area to be
evacuated in 72 hours are required, he says
Eugene s plan allows for evacuation within
20 hours, while the plan for Spokane,
Washington, would take a maximum of 50
hours Portland's evacuation plan would need
72 hours. Cogan says
Straw says people would not cooperate if
they Knew they were on the eve of a nuclear
war, and he wonders whether the public
workers who are supposed to assist in the
relocation would stay around to help
MM ^ re they 9°ing to take care of their own
family, or take care of everyone else?"
Cogan says the same sort of disobedience
also occurs during impending hurricanes but
he adds social scientists have found people
will follow instructions if there is an authority in
control
Evidence also shows key workers would do
their job if they knew their family was being
taken care of, he says
The availability of public workers is not only
important for those who are relocating but also
for continued operation of the high-risk area
for those who stay behind
Essential workers, including police, fire,
medical and media workers would take
12-hour shifts in the area
They would be Centered in the “non
movement" area — a doughnut-shaped area a
few miles wide circling the high-risk area
People living here would not be expected to
relocate, but those relocating from the high
risk area would settle beyond the non
movement area
Dr Glen Gordon, local Physicians for Social
Responsibility co-chairman, has serious
doubts about how sufficient medical resources
would be in the case of a nuclear disaster, as
does Straw
Gordon worries about sufficient blood sup
plies and facilities for burns treatment.
Walker worries that the relocation areas also
may become targets for nuclear weapons, and
that extensive civil defense planning may
increase the chance of nuclear war as the
United States becomes more confident and
our enemies become more wary and uneasy.
It is time to make a choice, Walker says.
We must decide if we will embark on a huge
civil defense plan, or on a freeze.”
Heasty hesitates to pass judgment on
relocation
"I'm not saying whether relocation is right or
wrong — it’s my job. The decision is for
someone else ”
Cogan says* "civil defense is a federal re
sponsibility,” as part of defending the people.
‘ At present, the government's best re
sponse to this is to relocate the people "
The plans “will work, but they will not be
flawless It will not be anything but survival.
They could never be used as justification for
getting into a nuclear war. They will not pre
serve sociey as we know it.”
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