Opinion experts may kindle hope, create underdogs
or undercut campaigns all by how they interpret
University professor
examines sampling
How are polls born?
A Gallup poll samples 300 geographical areal randomly, accord
ing to journalism Prof. James Lemert. The samples are chosen to refect
the characteristics of the country's population.
In other words, if 10 percent of the population is wealthy, 10 percent
of the chosen districts are wealthy. Five people from each district are
interviewed, for a total sample of 1,500 people.
Telephone interviews are used for quickie polls but, in general,
personal interviews are made, Lemert says. In effect, each interviewer
conducts five interviews.
“The inten/iewer — usually an experienced part-time employee, is
told what area to work as well as something like, Take the second
house in the third block on Eleventh Avenue and keep going until you
get an adult male who’s eligible to vote.’ ”
Polling organizations will trade interviewer lists. Lemert says he
has hired people who’ve worked for both Harris and Gallup.
"A statewide poll of Oregon operates about the same as Gallup,’’
says Lemert, "except a smaller sample is generally taken.”
The Jay Bardsley firm which conducts the Oregonian's polls, typi
cally interviews about 750 voters, as opposed to Gallup's 1,500. Their
percentage of error is about twice as great because of the fewer num
bers, says Lemert.
FRIDAY. OCTOBER 27th
8:00 - 10:00 p.m.
EMU BALLROOM
IN CONCERT!
Stories by BILL KOGUT
Of the Emerald
Hubert Humphrey had entered
the 1972 Presidential race late
and desperately needed a victory
against George McGovern in the
June California primary.
Ten days before the balloting, a
poll was released in the afternoon
that showed McGovern way out in
front. That evening, when
Humphrey’s campaign manager
arrived at Humphrey campaign
headquarters, there was only one
campaign volunteer in all of the
offices.
That lone volunteer was drunk
on the floor.
A politician’s epigram goes,
“Volunteers thrive on hope.” Un
favorable public opinion polls can
kill that hope, frighten off potential
campaign contributors, and scare
away voters.
Campaigns become derailed if
polls come out showing a candi
date far behind, says University
Journalism Professor Jim Lemert.
Since funds dry up, says
Lemert, the trailing candidate is
forced to spend more time per
suading the so-called “fat cats” to
contribute to his campaign and in
the process loses valuable cam
paign time.
"In June of 1974 during the
Brown-Flornoy race for governor
of California, a field poll came out
that showed Flornoy behind,”
Lemert says. “In August, another
The Polls
poll came out that showed the gap
between the two men in the polls
had widened.
Money that had been promised
didn’t arrive and, as a result, Fior
noy spent the next two months
looking for funds. Finally, money
started to flow back when the
Flornoy organization had a private
polling organization do a poll for
them and then leaked the results.
But, as a consequence Flornoy
had had no voter visibility for two
months.
As it turned out, the evidence is
that Brown indeed had a fairly
large lead, which almost disap
peared — he barely won. One
wonders what the outcome might
have been had Flornoy not been
so distracted.
After that poll came out 10 days
before the election, barely any of
the volunteers returned to the
headquarters and McGovern just
barely beat Humphrey. Again, the
outcome was so dose it’s very
tempting to say that probably the
results of that election were
changed by that poll.
“But it was not because it af
fected voters directly; it was be
cause it effected the morale and
the money.”
There isn’t much evidence sup
porting the contention that polls
can have a bandwagon effect on
voters, Lemert says.
Jay Bardsley, poll taker for The
Oregonian,’ agrees, but disagrees
on the effect polls can have on
campaign workers.
They don’t have much effect on
campaign workers in a two-way
race, he says, but can have an
effect on workers in a three-way
race.
In the McCall-Martin-Atiyeh
Republican primary race Bardsley
says, polls showing Martin way off
the pace encouraged Martin’s
anti-McCall supporters to switch
to Atiyeh.
Bardsley says the accuracy of
his polls range up to 4 percentage
points, depending upon the
number of voters interviewed.
These percentages of possible
error in combination with a time
lag of three days between the tak
ing of interviews and the publica
tion of poll results, make it hard to
accurately discern and evaluate
last minute trends, Bardsley says.
In other words, a close race with
a large number of undecided vot
ers going to the polls, cannot be
counted on to correctly pick the
winner.
Atiyeh's campaign manager,
(Ccntinued on Page 14)
The OSU Encore Committee presents
DARYL o JOHN
HALL OATES
with special guest
City Boy
October 28, Saturday
Gill Coliseum
OSU Campus, Corvallis
Reserved seats $6.50/$7.50
Show starts at 8, doors open at 7:30
Tickets available at
Everybody’s Record Company Oct. 23-28
A World Assembly/TDA Production