Wary of Contradictions —
Public shows little trust in opinion polls
By LES MANN
Of the Emerald
Ninety per cent of the individuals questioned in a
recent telephone survey of Eugene and Springfield said
they didn’t trust public opinion polls.
Nevertheless, in this election year the public will be
barraged with hundreds of survey results. And as in past
years, many of these surveys will contradict each other.
Informed readers, who have seen these contradic
tions, have become cynical and realize that a clever polls
ter can get the public to say almost anything he wants.
“They (polls) are so open to manipulation I usually
take them with a grain of salt,” said one person in the
phone poll.
Since the 1948 presidential election, when the nation
was told there was no way Truman would defeat Dewey,
Americans have been skeptical of polls.
However, pollsters are quick to defend their reliabil
ity.
We get an awful lot of people who say they don't
believe our polls, said Wendy Rozychi, a manager at
Bardsley and Haslacher Inc., a Portland research firm
that conducts opinion polls in Oregon.
"When people question us, we try to explain the
process we use and get them to understand our role,”
said Rozychi. "We know we are reliable. We know the
scientific process we use will give us an accurate picture."
Both pollsters and their critics agree that the reliabil
ity of a survey depends on the process used to gather the
data
“Every voter has an equal chance of being inter
viewed,” said Roziychi about area sampling. She said her
firm uses area sampling and the personal interview tech
nique almost exclusively.
“Because of the way we select people (area sam
pling), we are sure of getting a true cross-section of the
voting public and this enables us to conduct a relatively
small number of interviews,” said Rozychi.
James Lemert, head of communications research at
the University's journalism school said, “The only good
method for obtaining data is the personal interview.”
“Mail surveys are no good,” said Lemert. “They tend
to be biased because people who return questionnaires
are different from those who don’t.”
He points out that interviewer bias is possible in the
“man on the street” type of interview and in quota sam
pling because the interviewer selects the respondents he
wants to question.
Lemert criticizes polls done by and for private candi
dates or groups. He said no one is going to have a poll
done and then release it if it looks bad for him. Polls
conveniently "leaked" to the press by private candidates
should be questioned, says Lemert.
While Lemert is critical of some of the methods used
by pollsters, he agrees that area sampling is good and
provides an accurate picture.
But all polls, according to Lemert, have a percentage
of error no matter how well they are done. A very accurate
poll can have an error of up to three per cent, he says.
In an election campaign, for example, a poll might
indicate that one candidate has 52 per cent of the vote
and his opponent has 48 per cent.
All too often, says Lemert, the candidate who is
ahead by a small margin in a poll is declared the leader
when in fact the election could go either way.
George Gallup, who established the first national
polling firm in 1935, agrees with many of Lemerts's criti
cisms of polling.
He says polls taken by telephone, mail question
naires and polls conducted or financed by individual
candidates, parties or interest groups, should be ques
tioned.
He agrees the most important tenet of reliable survey
practices is the wording of the questions.
Rozychi said her organization also finds this to.be a
problem. “We will spend weeks just trying to get the right
wording on a question ”
Even though poll results may seem valid, critics call
for pollsters to provide ail the information concerning each
poll and enable readers to judge its validity.
“Pollsters should give the methodology they used to
get the data, how the data was obtained and how the
sample was drawn,” said Lemert.
Gallup agrees that pollsters should provide a com
plete description of their procedures, including the size of
the sample, the exact questions asked and the method
used to reach the sample.
Lemert thinks more information is required to lend
validity to the polls. The number of persons polled and the
percentage of responses obtained should be given, he
said.
In addition, Lemert said the name of the pollster and
the person who paid for the poll should be given, as well
as the method used: telephone, personal interview or
some other method.
Lemert believes that polls can serve a useful purpose
if the public is given enough information to assess each
poll's validity.
Preview welcomes
prospective freshmen
Approximately 1,000 high-school students and their par
ents will converge on the University campus Saturday for “U of
O Preview 76."
Prospective undergraduate students and their parents will
have the opportunity to explore academic fields as well as
programs during the day-long activities.
Participants will begin the day with registration, followed by
an optional tour of the campus, including the Museum of Art
and the Museum of Natural History. A campus slide show and
film of athletic highlights will also be available for viewing.
Later, participants may attend two academic interest ses
sions from the fields represented by the College of Liberal Arts
and vanous professional schools.
Special interest sessions will highlight the afternoon. This
year, some of the activities and programs will be offered at an
Activity Fair, held in the Erb Memorial Union. Other activities
will be offered conference-style at separate sessions.
The admissions office has arranged for bus service to pick
up students at various points along lnterstate-5.
V*
(Continued from Page'll
Italic writing
around the state teach the italic script But Lehman says many
other districts have expressed interest and are thinking of adopting the
program.
Mae Jackson, associate professor of curriculum and instruction, says
education students in language arts will be introduced to the italic style.
She says her office plans to make the Pentalic manual available in
either classes or special workshops.
The resurgence of interest in calligraphy is seen as both a rebellion
against standardization and an acceptance of handwriting as an enter
taining hobby.
“If someone is just casting around for a craft, nothing is more practical
or rewarding/' says Lou Strick, president of Pentalic, in last June's issue
of Harper's. Pentalic is the nation's only firm dealing exclusively with
calligraphic supplies.
Pentalic’s sales have doubled over the last few years and as the italic
program catches on around the state, Oregon may become Pentalic s
most lucrative sales area.
David McClelland, writing in Harper’s, concurs. He forsees the day
“when everyone in Oregon writes like a Renaissance scribe."
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Democrats plan convention
By RICK BELLA
Of the Emerald
Gearing up for the May
primaries, the Lane County
Democratic Party Platform Con
vention will be held Saturday fol
lowing a visit by U S. Sen. Frank
Church Friday night.
The convention, designed to
bring together county Democrats
for the purpose of hammering out
campaign platform planks, will be
held in Harris Hall in the county
building complex Saturday from
8:30 a m. to 5:30 p.m. Church will
speak at a dinner party held at the
Rodeway Inn in Springfield from 8
p.m. to 12 p.m. Friday.
"The convention is open to any
registered Democrat," says
Susan Delay, county vice-chairer,
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is
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Plants & (rifts
11th & Alder
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Behind the jungle mural
"so that we can get input from all
people. Anyone is free to partici
pate.”
Church's appearance at the
dinner is part of a fund-raising ef
fort to support the campaigns of
local Democrats. He will be intro
duced by U S. Rep. Jim Weaver
around 9 p.m. The agenda for the
evening includes an auction, no
host cocktails, movies and a band.
Admission is $5.
Local Democrats hope to get
down to business Saturday. The
agenda calls for registered
Democrats to decide what particu
lar stances to take on issues of
importance to Lane County vot
ers. According to Delay, the is
sues are divided into ten major
planks: election reforms, human
rights, local, state and federal af
fairs, natural resources, foreign
policy, education, health and wel
fare, revenue and taxation,
energy, and consumer affairs.
In addition, delegates will be
selected to represent Lane
County in the state Democratic
convention to be held in early
April. In accordance with the new
party guidelines, Lane County will
send approximately 75 delegates
to the convention. Multnomah
county will have approximately
180. According to Delay, while the
number of delegates for the
more-populated counties may
seem unworkable, the changes
were made to allow the less
populated counties adequate rep
resentation.
Admission to the party platform
convention is $1.
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