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Wednesday, October 21, 2020 The Nugget Newspaper, Sisters, Oregon
Commentary...
Intricately interwoven: Deschutes County’s COVID-19 analysis
By Dave Tremblay
Deschutes COVID-19 Cases: Weekly Totals
Columnist
Out of the turbulent 1970s, came this saying:
<Think globally. Act locally.=
In early 2020, very few people in the world
had heard of China9s Wuhan City, a population of
over 11 million people. There, the first recorded
COVID-19 case was in December 2019. Scientific
evidence indicates COVID-19 has a natural animal
origin, likely contracted from bats. According to a
July 29 British Broadcasting Corporation (BBC)
article, <Research suggests one of the closest
known ancestors of the virus that causes COVID-
19 emerged in bats more than 40 years ago.=
Since then, infected people include the most
powerful, rich, and <medically protected= people
in the world. We, however, fight this virus mostly
on an individual and/or familial basis.
This paints the bigger picture 4 events occur-
ring decades ago, as well as in a place thousands
of miles away from our Central Oregon communi-
ties. Also, we can see the impact of COVID-19 on
each continent throughout 2020.
Behaviors and actions 4 taken and/or untaken
4 have immediate, as well as long-term, cata-
strophic consequences. Moreover, these four sim-
ple words <think globally 4 act locally= have an
immense, potential impact on reducing the num-
ber of COVID-19 cases.
In my Nugget article on September 29, I
described two important statistical measures, mean
(average) and standard deviation. Using those sta-
tistical values, we create meaningful charts. These
charts and rules help us visualize and understand
future process behavior.
This table shows statistically proven guidelines
to interpret COVID-19 process behavior.
Where Data Points (Dots) Fall In Zones
Zone
Possibility
that Process
is Unstable,
Unpredictable
Needed #
of Points to
Determine
Unstable,
Unpredictable
Mean
(Average)
+ Standard
Deviation
Green
Very low
Not Applicable
±1
Yellow
Likely/
Possible
2 Consecutive
Points
±2
Red
Definitely
1 Point
±3
a relatively stable <Stay At Home= period, March
8-May 16, the weekly case average was 9.5 per
week. This is true even when using the 18 reported
cases for the March 29-April 4 week.
Twenty-three cases on May 17-23 exceeded the
statistically established red zone. This harbinger
indicated process inconsistency and unpredictabil-
ity. (While the specific cause is unclear, perhaps
the influx of tourists was a factor?) Of course, this
heralded dramatic increases and fluctuations start-
ing the week of June 21-27.
Importantly, the analysis shows that if the
weekly cases reach 14 cases per week, then <this
turns the tide.= That is using the <Stay At Home=
cases per week average (9.5) with one standard
deviation (4.1). The past six weeks averaged 40
cases per week.
Governor Brown reopened 31 of 36 counties
on June 5. About two weeks subsequent started the
marked Deschutes County rise. Also, the delayed
decline in cases per Oregon9s stringent mask/
enhanced safety measures implemented on July 1.
(It is noted that populous Multnomah County,
about 150 miles away, has a humongous impact on
the overall Oregon number of cases.)
The September 29 Oregon COVID-19 article
established a <turning the corner= cases per week
at 437 throughout Oregon. Again, Deschutes
County seems to be 14.
Importantly, the <bendy= lines in the chart
below are computer-generated regression lines. In
this case, each line correlates the number of cases
over time. Then, determines a numeric value, the
R-Squared (R2). Regression values range from 0
to 1 (<perfect=); the higher number, the stronger
correlation. In business applications, .5 is consid-
ered <good.= Oregon9s correlation is extremely
high (.94) with Deschutes strong (.71).
Of high concern is the dramatic, upward tail of
each line after the last recorded weeks (far right).
This indicates more reported COVID-19 cases in
the near future. Recent news agencies throughout
the world, the United States, and Oregon are com-
municating this now.
Modifying John Donne9s 1624 poem, <No per-
son is an Island, entire of itself; every is a piece
of the Continent, a part of the main.= We are intri-
cately interwoven.
Activities throughout the globe impact our lives
now and in the future 4 sometimes tragically.
With process understanding, prudent actions/poli-
cies, and personal adherence, we hope to reduce
COVID-19 cases everywhere.
Send comments to DataDaveOR@gmail.com.
Oregon & Deschutes COVID-19 Cases: Weekly Totals
With these above rules, we can better ana-
lyze the number of reported COVID-19 cases in
Deschutes County. https://www.deschutes.org/
health/page/covid-19-novel-coronavirus
Data listed in the left-hand column is by week,
Sunday through Saturday, with the corresponding
number of cases. Deschutes9 first cases (5) were
reported during the week of March 3-14. Through
October 3, 906 countywide cases 4 with 25
reported in Sisters.
Establishing process-behavior information in
Sheriff’s office launches ‘health of the force’ initiative
In 2019, 228 law enforcement officers in the
United States took their own lives. The profession
of law enforcement is one of the most potentially
dangerous and traumatizing careers in the country.
Deputies are exposed daily to events and inci-
dents of tragedy. They work 12-hour shifts, both
days and nights, which often involve overtime. They
are expected to function at a high level of awareness
and self-control regardless of the crisis and trauma
they are called to respond to to ensure public safety.
These and other factors generate stressors that can,
in time, become detrimental to an officer9s physical
and mental health.
<Wellness programs for law enforcement person-
nel are showing up all over the country, guided by the
expertise of psychologists, researchers, physicians,
fitness trainers, and spiritual leaders of all stripes,=
said Dr. Kris Falco, psychologist, Police Services.
<These programs are showing significant promise
in the reduction of officer-reported stress, improved
job performance and satisfaction, and more effective
decision making abilities under stress.<
For a few years now, the Deschutes County
Sheriff9s Office has been doing research in the field
of law enforcement officer wellness for retention of
personnel and expansion of services.
<Given recent events, we acknowledge the
necessity and urgency to launch the new Health of
the Force Initiative (HOFI),= said Sergeant Jayson
Janes in a press release announcing the initiative.
<This 21st Century program, supported in part by
grants, will not only enrich our current peer support
program, but enhance the current partnership we
have in place with the Central Oregon Public Safety
Chaplaincy (COPC). <
The Health of the Force Initiative institutes a
voucher system for <no questions asked= behavioral
health counseling. Ten local providers have been
established so that deputy sheriffs will have timely
opportunities to seek help for themselves and their
immediate families.
The program is also scheduled to have cardiac
scans for those who want to participate in individual
sleep studies to determine their quality of sleep.
<We are providing yoga and chair massage to on-
duty deputies and promoting mindfulness training.
These are holistic practices shown to successfully
relieve and reduce stress,= Sgt. Janes reported. <In
developing the Initiative we partnered closely with
the Bend Police Department whose officer well-
ness program received high marks in the 2019 U.S.
Department of Justice Law Enforcement Mental
Health and Wellness study
The program will also eventually provide gym
and training space.
The Sheriff9s Office received a grant of over
$111,000 to be used for the DCSO peer support pro-
gram. The peer-support program provides public-
safety employees an opportunity to receive physical,
psychological, and emotional support through times
of personal or professional crisis. This money will be
used to provide training and technology to members
of the peer support team as well as therapy referrals.