6
Wednesday, October 14, 2020 The Nugget Newspaper, Sisters, Oregon
Dozens of U Are we headed into a cold, wet winter?
if you like your winters cooler fall and early winter, and
<There are a lot of indi-
of O students By Ron Thorkildson
and wetter than normal. again in late winter, may cators that are pointing us to
As a rule, the southern tier allow excursions of arctic a cool, wet fall and colder,
one of the of states experiences warmer air into the U.S. During mid- stormier winter for Oregon,=
test positive worst After fire enduring
seasons in modern and drier than normal con- winter, these winds should he adds.
history, Oregonians earnestly ditions during a La Niña strengthen, keeping the cold-
The National Weather
for virus
hope the upcoming winter regime, while the northern est air confined to the polar Service9s Climate Prediction
Correspondent
will deliver an ample supply
of much-needed moisture
to extinguish the fires still
burning and to ease extreme
drought conditions that grip
our region.
Every source of informa-
tion begins by revealing cur-
rent conditions in the central
Pacific Ocean. Known as the
El Niño Southern Oscillation
(ENSO), it is the most impor-
tant climate phenomenon
on earth due to its ability
to change the global atmo-
spheric circulation. It exists
in one of three phases: warm
(El Niño), cold (La Niña) and
neutral (sometimes referred
to as La Nada).
In recent months, lower
sea surface temperatures and
an increasing trade wind have
shifted the ENSO phase from
neutral to a weak La Niña,
and most forecasters think it
will strengthen through the
upcoming winter. In fact,
based on the latest data, the
Climate Prediction Center
has said there9s an 85 per-
cent chance of a moderate-to-
strong La Niña to be in place
by the November-January
time frame. This is good news
part of the country tends to be
cooler and wetter, except for
New England where this cor-
relation is weaker. An active
jet stream should direct sev-
eral Pacific storms into the
Northwest. At the same time,
colder than normal air usually
overspreads Western Canada,
allowing for possible cold
snaps when high amplitude
troughs develop in the upper
atmosphere.
A team of long-range fore-
casters at AccuWeather, led
by Senior Meteorologist Paul
Pastelok, recently released
their winter outlook. An
early start to wintry weather
is expected in the Pacific
Northwest.
<Mountain snow and
stormy conditions may arrive
in late fall for the Northwest,
northern California, and
northern Rockies.
<Even the I-5 corridor
from Medford through Seattle
will have several opportuni-
ties for accumulating snow-
fall before 2020 draws to a
close,= Pastelok said.
The winds that circulate
about the polar vortex will
probably be weak in the late
The Law Offi ce of
JOHN H. MYERS, LLC
regions, according to the
AccuWeather team.
Pete Parsons, meteo-
rologist for the Oregon
Department of Forestry,
issued his October through
December outlook on
September 17, 2020. He fore-
sees normal temperatures and
precipitation levels for the
three-month period in Central
Oregon.
Parsons relies heavily on
analog forecasting 4 select-
ing past years that most
closely match current ENSO
values and trends, then
extrapolating forward the
type of winter that occurred
in those years. For this fore-
cast he used a blend of three
analog years, 1959, 1970 and
1995.
<In La Niña years, it usu-
ally doesn9t get a lot wetter
until November. But you start
to see some significant cool-
ing in October,= said Parsons.
Parsons believes higher-
than-normal amplitudes in
upper air patterns will likely
emerge this winter.
Center issued its forecast
on September 17, 2020 for
the period October through
December. It calls for warmer
than normal temperatures and
above normal precipitation in
our area. By January through
March of 2021 there9s an
equal chance that tempera-
tures will come in above or
below normal, but it be wet-
ter than average.
Nearly all the prognos-
ticators agree that a robust
La Niña is on the way that
should produce a cooler and
wetter winter, with ample
snow in the mountains here
in the Pacific Northwest. And
we sure could use it.
Year-round
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PHOTO BY ALEX JORDAN
EUGENE (AP) 4 The
University of Oregon (U of
O) is reporting that dozens of
students have tested positive
for COVID-19.
The university9s website
showed on Monday, October
5, that 57 coronavirus cases
had been confirmed in the
previous four days alone.
On Tuesday, the university
reported 12 more cases, for
a total this month of 69 cases
(as of Thursday, October 8).
Only one of the students
who tested positive in October
lives in on-campus hous-
ing, officials said. The rest
live off campus. The surge in
cases comes at the beginning
of the school year, KEZI-TV
reported.
Cases have been climbing
since about September 22,
when the university reported
15 cases. Every day since
then, at least six additional
cases have been reported.
Officials said students who
live on campus and test posi-
tive for the disease are <in iso-
lation= while they recover.
U of O has reported a total
of 220 cases since June 1.
Also on Monday, the
Register-Guard reported that
four people were cited by city
and university police for host-
ing a party for between 100
and 150 mostly college-age
people off campus.
Lane County Public Health
officials have urged the com-
munity to stop gatherings, in
particular, college parties.
Lane County is in Phase
2 of pandemic reopening,
meaning all indoor gatherings
are capped at 10 people.
For most people, corona-
virus causes mild or moderate
symptoms such as fever and
cough that clear up in two to
three weeks. For some it can
cause more severe illness,
including pneumonia and death.
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