8
Wednesday, July 15, 2020 The Nugget Newspaper, Sisters, Oregon
COVID-19: Cases
are trending steeply
upward across Oregon
Continued from page 1
patients, one in the inten-
sive care unit (ICU) on a
ventilator.
On Monday, the over-
all count dropped to six, but
three were in the ICU on
ventilators.
<We9re definitely below
our peak, but it9s ramping
back up,= said Dr. Robert
Pfister, chief safety and qual-
ity officer for St. Charles
Health System. <We9re defi-
nitely seeing more cases than
we did a few weeks ago.=
Sisters has recently
recorded the first confirmed
cases in the 97759 zip code
since the pandemic began.
The actual numbers are not
reported until they exceed 10;
currently Sisters is listed sim-
ply as one to nine cases.
Dr. Pfister notes that the
St. Charles ICUs are at or
near capacity due to standard
medical and accident-related
traffic. Bend was at 92 per-
cent capacity as of Friday;
Redmond was at 100 per-
cent. Just a handful of criti-
cal COVID patients would
severely strain the system.
Oregon at large has bro-
ken single-day reporting
records several times over the
past two weeks. On Sunday,
Oregon Health Authority
reported 332 new cases
and two new deaths. As of
Sunday9s reporting, Oregon
has reported 12,170 cases and
234 deaths.
Spread of COVID-19
The increased community
spread of COVID-19 was an
inevitable 4 and expected
4 byproduct of <reopening=
economic and social activity.
The reopening seems to have
led some to let down their
guard.
Oregon Health Authority
reported last week that,
<Since Oregon began reopen-
ing, we have seen spread of
COVID-19 when people get
together to celebrate with
family and friends.= Some
examples include:
" Graduations.
" Birthdays.
" Weddings.
" Holidays.
<For sure a lot of the
uptick we9ve been seeing has
been from gatherings,= Dr.
Pfister said. <If you just drive
around&. You9ll see people
in large groups&. I think
people are trying to do the
right thing in general terms,
but it9s pretty hard to drink a
beer through a mask.=
COVID-19 is spreading
more through social activities
involving groups of younger
people, OHA reports. OHA has
recorded outbreaks linked to:
" Exercise classes.
" A fraternity party.
" A bachelor party.
Citing rapid increase in
COVID-19 cases, Governor
Kate Brown announced on
Monday a ban on indoor
social gatherings of more
than 10 people 4 which
does not apply to churches or
businesses.
The Governor also
extended mask requirements
to apply outdoors when peo-
ple are unable to maintain six
feet of physical distancing.
She left the door open to
applying further restrictions.
<I hope I don9t have to
go the route of Texas and
California and close bars and
restaurants, but nothing is off
the table,= Brown said.
The spread among
younger demographics may
be behind the rapid increase
in cases 4 and a reason why
mortality has not climbed
along with cases.
COVID-19 Mortality
Dr. Pfister noted that,
nationwide, 85 percent of
new cases have involved
patients ages 20 to 40. That
skew toward younger popu-
lations, Dr. Pfister believes,
may in part explain why the
death rate has not soared
along with case increases.
Data shows that the death
rate from COVID-19 has not
been increasing apace with
significantly increased case-
loads. Data shows that the
daily death toll from corona-
virus 4 allowing for a couple
of spikes well above 1,000/
day 4 has hovered between
500 and 1,000 through most
of June and into July, after
peaking at 4,900 in a single
day on April 16.
Dr. Pfister and other medi-
cal professionals posit several
possible causes for the flat
mortality curve in the face of
a climbing case curve.
First, the virus has
mutated, and it may be more
contagious and less deadly.
Dr. Pfister notes that the
first element is certain 4
the second aspect is not yet
established.
<We know that the virus
has already mutated eight or
nine times,= he said. <The
virus we see now is definitely
more contagious. We don9t
know if it9s less deadly or not,
but that9s a real possibility.=
Dr. Pfister notes that the
mortality rate for COVID-
19 is 0.3 percent 4 consid-
erably less than what was
experienced in severe, deadly
outbreaks in Italy and Spain,
where death rates were esti-
mated at two percent or higher.
However, he is not compla-
cent about the lower number.
<I9m eternally grateful for
that (0.3 percent number) 4
but that9s still pretty deadly,=
he said.
Asked if treatment pro-
tocols have reduced mortal-
ity, Dr. Pfister demurred.
While he is full of praise for
the diligence and adaptiv-
ity of the front-line medical
professionals dealing with
the worst cases, he says that
treatment protocols 4 <pron-
ing= (keeping a patient face
down instead of on their
back) and the use of less-
invasive respiratory support;
the use of anti-coagulants and
corticosteroids; and the anti-
viral treatment remdesivir 4
have been refined, but aren9t
revolutionary.
<We were doing most of
them in the first wave,= he
said.
He doesn9t see improved
treatment as having a big
enough effect to significantly
bend the mortality curve
downward.
Asymptomatic
COVID-19 Carrier (he
doesn’t know he has it)
Healthy individual not
previously exposed to
COVID-19
Air currents carrying
microdroplets that
may contain virus
particles
Virus transmission
risk high
Virus transmission
risk reduced
Virus transmission
risk reduced more
Virus transmission
risk somewhat high
INFOGRAPHIC BY LISA MAY
<My gut tells me that9s not
it,= he said.
For Dr. Pfister, the key to
the reduced rate may lie in
who is currently getting sick
4 that younger demographic
that makes up 85 percent of
new cases. Though there have
been terrible stories of death
in young, apparently healthy
patients, the vast majority of
deaths have been recorded in
older people with underlying
medical conditions. Most of
Oregon9s deaths have been
in people in their 80s and
See COVID-19 on page 24
Featured J July y Artists…
PASTELS by
BANR ENTERPRISES, LLC
Residential & Commercial Contractor
J JoAnn Burgress
g
METALS by
b Ki
Kim Chavez
C
& Breezy
y Anderson
Open Th urs.-Mon.,
O
M
1 11 1 a.m.-4 p.m.
541-719-1800 • 357 W. HOOD AVE., SISTERS • HOODAVENUEART.COM
BANR can help you from
clearing to concrete…
demolition to design.
When the going gets tough,
even the tough call us!
CCB#165122
541-549-6977
WWW.BANR.NET | SCOTT@BANR.NET