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Wednesday, June 10, 2020 The Nugget Newspaper, Sisters, Oregon
Top Five Real Estate Trends 2020
— COVID / Riots Edition
Dear
Property Guy
By Mike Zoormajian
We once again interrupt
our regularly scheduled Dear
Property Guy fun to take
some time to assess what9s
going on in the real estate
world.
Last time we looked at
how the economic shutdown
is affecting members of our
community as both renters
and property owners. Since
then we9ve added riots to
the mix as well. So let9s take
some time to address the
questions blowing up my
inbox: <What9s going on?=
and <When will this madness
be over?=
To those questions, I
have no answers, but let9s
talk about some definite real
estate trends that may point
to answers.
1. Supply and Demand:
Residential values are
holding. Commercial values
not so much. People haven9t
been trying to sell houses
during lockdown (reduced
supply). The thought of
allowing icky strangers to
tour one9s home in recent
weeks has been too much.
Listings are way down across
the local area, across the
state, and across the country.
As the country reopens, we
are seeing more listings.
Coincidentally, people
haven9t been lining up to buy
either (reduced demand). So
values are holding steady as
we presently have market
equilibrium. More than we
can say for our stock invest-
ments. That said, nobody
knows what spring will bring
and my crystal ball is pretty
cloudy&
2. Geographic Shifts:
Call it the <suburbaniza-
tion of America.= Nationally,
we9re seeing a significant
shift away from big cities,
and towards suburbs and
smaller cities. On the West
Coast, this means a shift from
places like: San Francisco,
L.A., and Seattle (not coinci-
dentally COVID and riot hot
spots), to places like: Bend,
Boise, and Kirkland. This
whole COVID deal is only
serving to accelerate a shift
already in motion.
Riots in major cities
are going to accelerate this
trend. Retail establishments
that were burned or looted
will have a tough business
case for rebuilding. Expect
excess commercial space.
3. Work From Home:
This genie is out of the
bottle and it is not going back
in. People like working from
home, and recent studies
are showing improved pro-
ductivity. Companies like
Twitter have made work
from home a permanent fea-
ture. And working in one9s
jammies has a certain appeal
all its own.
This feeds into the geo-
graphic shift referenced
above, and allows people
to live where they want,
instead of where they work.
And where do people want
to live? That9s right, Central
Oregon. There is already
quite the subculture of peo-
ple living in Bend and work
in Silicon Valley.
4. Retiree Geographic
Shifts:
COVID is hastening
the exit of many seniors
from both cities and high-
tax states. In addition to
health and crime concerns,
many retirees are experi-
ence economic fear as their
stock investments have
fallen. So what do they
do? They sell their $3 mil-
lion, 1,500-square-foot
casita in the Bay Area.
They buy a nicer place up
here for 25 percent of the
cost and live off the rest of
the money. This is another
See PROPERTY GUY on page 20
Top health official: No virus
surge since state reopening
PORTLAND (AP) 4
Oregon hasn9t seen a corona-
virus resurgence in the weeks
since most counties began to
slowly reopen businesses, the
state9s top health official said
Wednesday, June 3.
Oregon Health Authority
Director Patrick Allen spoke
of declining hospitaliza-
tions and infection rates as
evidence that the spread of
COVID-19 remains mild,
even as new reported cases
increased slightly in recent
d a y s , T h e O re g o n i a n /
OregonLive reported.
He credited Oregonians
for taking steps to reduce
their risk of infection, such
as wearing face coverings
in public and continuing to
practice social distancing.
<I think it9s safe to say
our situation is stable,= Allen
said in a news conference
with Gov. Kate Brown. <As
stores, salons, and restau-
rants have reopened across
the state, COVID-19 has
not reemerged with renewed
ferocity.=
The official assess-
ment comes as other states
throughout the U.S. 4 such
as Texas, North Carolina,
and Wisconsin 4 have seen
steady increases in corona-
virus infections and deaths
after lifting stay-home orders
imposed at the beginning of
the outbreak.
Brown allowed most
counties to gradually resume
public and economic activity
on May 15.
Throughout the pandemic,
Oregon has had one of the
lowest infection and death
rates in the country among
known cases. While nearly
4,400 people have tested pos-
itive for COVID-19 since late
February, recent projections
estimate more than 20,000 4
almost five times the number
of identified cases 4 have
been infected.
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