30
Wednesday, October 10, 2018 The Nugget Newspaper, Sisters, Oregon
WEATHER: High-profile
forecasts have been
off in recent years
Continued from page 3
receives throughout the year.
As of October 2, the
National Integrated Drought
Information System has
declared the severity of the
drought in Deschutes County
to be extreme.
There’s no question that
our region is suffering from a
serious lack of water; the real
question now becomes will
winter bring with it any sig-
nificant relief?
In an attempt to find an
answer, the first order of
business is to take a peek at
sea-surface temperatures in
the equatorial region of the
Pacific Ocean. The tool used
most often to determine this
is the Oceanic Nino Index
(ONI), which considers sur-
face water temperature only.
The current value is +0.1,
putting the El Niño Southern
Oscillation (ENSO) in a neu-
tral phase. At this time, most
forecasters think the neutral
phase will carry into early
winter. Beyond that point,
however, prognosticators’
opinions begin to diverge.
Some believe the neutral
phase will continue through-
out the winter, while others
think the ONI will exceed a
value of +0.5, ushering in an
El Niño.
The best chance for the
Pacific Northwest to experi-
ence normal temperatures and
precipitation is for the ENSO
phase to remain neutral. An
El Niño would likely result
in warmer temperatures, less
rainfall and smaller mountain
snowpacks.
Pete Parsons, meteo-
rologist for the Oregon
Department of Agriculture
in Salem, issued his seasonal
forecast for the three-month
period, October through
December, on September 20.
He’s calling for relatively
placid conditions early in
October that will likely turn
stormy by the end of the
month and continue through
December. Though he hasn’t
made specific forecasts
beyond December at this
time, he is leaning toward the
ENSO phase remaining neu-
tral throughout the winter.
By contrast, the Climate
Prediction Center (CPC)
favors the development of
an El Niño later in the win-
ter (50–75 percent chance).
Because of this, their three-
month forecast is quite dif-
ferent. Temperatures should
average above normal and
precipitation below normal.
An important factor in the
CPC’s analysis is the fact that
although surface temperatures
in the tropical Pacific are near
normal, the water temperature
at a greater depth is above
normal.
It should be pointed out
that despite the presence of
a moderately strong La Niña
last winter, the snow and
cold didn’t kick in until mid-
February. But by that time it
was too late to catch up and
the springtime snowpack in
the Central Oregon Cascades
came in at just 65 percent of
normal.
Making useful seasonal
weather forecasts is difficult
at best, and not for the faint
of heart. But is global climate
change interfering with some
of the methods currently
being used? While there’s not
yet a definitive answer to this
question, certain high-profile
failed forecasts (such as the
super El Niño that was sup-
posed to inundate Southern
California with rain — but
didn’t) suggest that maybe
this is so. If this is the case,
perhaps atmospheric sci-
entists can learn to identify
what some of these influ-
ences are and adjust for them
to improve forecasting skill.
Until that happens, seasonal
prognosticating may continue
to be a game of hit and miss.
FOOD BANK:
Service depends on
volunteers, donations
Continued from page 1
33,510 pounds of food in
2016-17 to 23,490 pounds in
2017-18 (October-September
fiscal year). Cash dona-
tions are also down sig-
nificantly — to the tune of
$35,000.
“We lost a couple of major
donors,” Hespe said. “In
order to continue the level
of food distribution that we
have at this time, we have to
replace those donors.”
The non-profit foundation
that operates the Food Bank
purchased about $80,000
worth of food last year —
51 percent of the total dis-
tributed. Foods like meat,
produce, milk and eggs can-
not readily be donated and
must be purchased. Cash
donations allow flexibility
in what kinds of foods can
be stocked at the Food
Bank.
In FY 2017-18, the Food
Bank distributed some
of donations.
“ I d e a l l y, w e ’ d l i k e
cash AND food,” he said.
“Otherwise, we’re going to
have to change our business
operating model. We won’t
be able to offer as much
food.”
Checks payable to Sisters
Kiwanis Community Service
Foundation may be mailed to
P.O. Box 1296, Sisters, OR
97759.
Sisters Kiwanis will host
an open house on October 14,
from noon to 3 p.m. at 328
W. Main Ave. At 1 p.m. there
will be a memorial ceremony
and bench dedication for
David Roberts, the Kiwanis
member who managed the
construction of the Food
Bank building.
The open house offers a
tour where visitors will see
the state-of-the-art facilities
and understand how local
families choose their food
“shopping style.”
For more information on
the open house, contact Suzy
Ramsey at 541-419-0340.
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113,450 pounds of food to
a total of just under 6,000
people.
According to figures pro-
vided by Hespe, the Food
Bank served 3,711 adults and
1,324 children (to 18 years of
age) and an additional home-
less population of 731 adults
and 182 children.
Food is distributed every
Thursday from 9 a.m. to 2
p.m. at 328 W. Main Ave.
(corner of Oak Street and
Main Avenue). Donation
criteria are listed at www.
sisterskiwanis.org/food-bank.
The Kiwanis Food Bank
operates under the Sisters
Kiwanis Community Service
Foundation, a 501(c)(3) non-
profit. The operation is all-
volunteer; none of the food
bank staff, including the
manager, receive any sal-
ary. One hundred percent of
funds donated to the food
bank are used to purchase
food and operate the food
bank building.
Hespe said the foundation
is pushing to restore its level
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