Wednesday, April 6, 2016 The Nugget Newspaper, Sisters, Oregon
WEATHER: Cascades
have a solid snowpack
this year
Continued from page 1
by many residents of the
Pacific Northwest, who had
just endured two extremely
dry winters in a row. Another
would certainly worsen
drought conditions and might
impose hardships for many
whose livelihoods depend on
mountain snow and available
water.
El Niño is the warm phase
of the El Niño Southern
Oscillation (ENSO) and
occurs when warm ocean
water in the tropics migrates
eastward, pooling in the east-
ern Pacific. Once in place,
it disrupts normal weather
patterns across the globe for
months at a time. Here in
the U.S. winters tend to be
warmer in the Midwest and
New England, cooler and
wetter across the southern
tier of states from Southern
California to the East Coast,
and warmer and drier in the
Pacific Northwest.
An El Niño’s existence
and strength is gauged by
applying various types of
indices. Two of the more
commonly used are the
Oceanic Niño Index (ONI)
and the Multivariate ENSO
Index (MEI). The ONI tracks
ocean temperature anomalies
(departures from normal),
while the MEI integrates
water temperature with four
types of atmospheric condi-
tions. For both indices, the
higher the numerical value,
the stronger an El Niño is
rated.
The climate experts were
right — sort of.
A mega-El Niño did
develop late last fall, and still
lingers into early spring. It
easily joins the 1982-83 and
1997-98 events as the top
three El Niños since 1950.
According to the ONI, this
season’s El Niño and that of
1997-98 are tied as the two
strongest events on record.
The MEI puts the current El
Niño in third place behind
1997-98 and 1982-83.
What’s a bit hard to
explain, however, is how
uneven the weather turned
out to be in various parts of
the country. The Midwest
and East Coast generally had
warmer than normal temper-
atures, while the Southeast
experienced cooler and wet-
ter conditions, typical of an
El Niño.
But on the West Coast,
normal El Niño weather was
hard to come by. Southern
California was put on alert
to expect torrents of rain
that might end its drought
but also trigger mudslides in
the process. Computer mod-
els kept forecasting a series
of moist storms to move
through the area but it never
happened. It’s true that fewer
and weaker storms have pro-
vided northern and central
California with near-normal
precipitation, but Southern
California only received
about half its average rainfall
for the winter.
Here in the Pacific
Northwest our “Jekyll-and-
Hyde” winter was also unex-
pected, much to the relief of
many of its residents.
Preliminary data for
Sisters obtained from the
Sisters Ranger District
Office shows that winter-
like weather began in late
October with low-elevation
rain and mountain snow that
just kept coming through
November and December.
There were also a few epi-
sodes of low-elevation snow
during this period.
November was colder
than normal and precipitation
in December was 4.5 inches
above normal. The Cascade
snowpack in Central Oregon
was measured at 147 percent
of normal on December 28. It
was as if El Niño had forgot-
ten all about us.
By January, there were
signs the weather was start-
ing to settle down, despite
being slightly colder than
normal with average precipi-
tation totals. Then BANG,
in February it all changed
around. Winter was put on
pause as El Niño was finally
on to us. Maximum daily
temperatures were almost
6 degrees Fahrenheit above
normal and precipitation
totaled just 0.5 inches. And
that precious mountain snow
was starting to melt away. On
February 26 the snowpack
registered just 106 percent of
normal.
A few more storms rolled
through our region in March,
bringing above-normal
precipitation and average
temperatures, allowing the
mountains to add a bit more
snow to the now-normal
snowpack.
The Climate Prediction
Center (CPC) is calling for
above-normal temperatures
with near-average precipi-
tation levels in our area for
the upcoming three-month
period April through June.
Though still strong, the
inconsistent El Niño of
2015-16 is beginning to
fade. By late spring or early
summer the ENSO signal is
expected to become neutral,
and, according to the CPC,
there’s a 50 percent chance
that a La Niña (ENSO’s cool
phase) will develop by next
fall.
osu to raise
tuition, fees
in Bend by
four percent
BEND (AP) — Oregon
State University is rais-
ing tuition and fees at its
Cascades campus in order to
make the cost closer to the
rate at the main campus in
Corvallis.
The Bulletin reports that
tuition at OSU-Cascades for
resident undergraduates will
increase this fall to $2,800 per
term, or $8,400 for the 2016-
17 academic year, compared
to $2,710 per term this year.
Tuition at the Corvallis cam-
pus for the same student will
increase to $2,905 per term
in tuition, up from $2,845
this year, or $8,715 per
year.
OSU officials say com-
bined tuition and fees for
Cascades resident undergrad-
uates will rise nearly four
percent.
OSU spokesman Steve
Clark says the tuition at the
Bend campus is increasing
as Cascades transitions to a
four-year campus.
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