5A THE DAILY ASTORIAN • MONDAY, FEBRUARY 16, 2015 NOISE OR TRUTH? 6FLHQWLVWVZRUNWRVHHD future with natural variances This is the second of two stories looking at how scien- tists are interpreting strange weather, ocean conditions and animal sightings in 2014, and what it all could mean for salm- RQ¿VKHUPHQDQGWKHHFRQRP\ By KATIE WILSON EO Media Group There’s the regular kind of QRLVH FDUV EDFN¿ULQJ SODQHV RYHUKHDG WKH EDUN RI JXQV GXULQJGHHUVHDVRQ¿VKLQJERDWV FUHDNLQJ DW DQFKRU FDUJR VKLSV on the Columbia River bellow- ing in the fog. Then there is “noise” in a sci- HQWL¿FVWDWLVWLFDOVHQVH This year was one of the EHVW\HDUVIRUVDOPRQ¿VKHUPHQ in Oregon and Washington: ³7KHUH¶VVRPDQ\¿VKUROOLQJLQ WKLV \HDU´ VDLG 5RQ 5ROHU &R OXPELD5LYHUSROLF\FRRUGLQDWRU IRUWKH:DVKLQJWRQ'HSDUWPHQW of Fish and Wildlife in August. “The sheer numbers are just so KXJHLWDOPRVWGH¿HVORJLF´ But it wasn’t such a great year for crab. The crab that were RXW WKHUH ZHUH ³EHDXWLIXO´ VDLG ¿VKHULHV PDQDJHUV DQG ¿VKHU PHQZHUHSXOOLQJLQJRRGPRQ H\SHUSRXQG7KH\MXVWZHUHQ¶W ¿QGLQJWKDWPDQ\ “It’s the cyclical nature of WKHVH ¿VKHULHV´ ¿VKHU\ PDQDJ HUVH[SODLQHGRYHUDQGRYHU$QG they were right. 7KRVHXSVDQGGRZQVDUHQRW unusual. Neither was the mass of warm water moving off the West Coast — the Blob — that brought many strange marine animals to colder waters here. Researchers call these things ³QRLVH´ DEXQGDQFH RQH \HDU VFDUFLW\WKHQH[WÀXFWXDWLRQVLQ WHPSHUDWXUHV DQG ZHDWKHU SDW terns. )RUWKRVHDWWHPSWLQJWRSUH dict the effects of climate change LQWKHIXWXUHWKHFKDOOHQJHLVWR VHSDUDWH RXW WKDW QRUPDO QRLVH from the rising clamor of climate change. ³7KHFOLPDWHLVFKDQJLQJEXW right now we’re still subject to all WKH YDJDULHV´ VDLG 1LFN %RQG Washington state climatologist. %XW KH DGGHG ³7KH FKHPLVWU\ of the ocean is changing too. The ORQJHU\RXZDLWWKHPRUHWKLQJV are going to chain. … We’d like to know when we’re getting into uncharted territories.” Slippery studies ,W¶VGLI¿FXOWWRWHDVHWKHWZR DSDUW QRUPDO ³QRLVH´ DQG FOL PDWH FKDQJH ,Q UHFHQW \HDUV thousands of researchers have SXEOLVKHG WKRXVDQGV RI VWXGLHV DURXQG WKH ZRUOG EXW DOPRVW every year something changes: a FDOFXODWLRQDQHZXQGHUVWDQGLQJ DERXW D VSHFLHV RXU RZQ LQWHU HVWVDQGUHVSRQVHV 0HDQZKLOH PDQDJHPHQW SUDFWLFHV DUH VWUXJJOLQJ WR NHHS XSDVVWXGLHVSLOHRQWRSRIHDFK RWKHUDQGERWKQHZDQGROGGDWD are examined and re-examined. WDFW has slowly been in- tegrating climate change models and information into how the GHSDUWPHQW PDQDJHV ZLOGOLIH DUHDV DQG LGHQWL¿HV VSHFLHV WR IRFXV RQ VDLG /\QQ +HOEUHFKW climate change coordinator with WDFW. ³:H¶UHLQWKHWKURHVRIWKDW LI \RX ZLOO´ +HOEUHFKW VDLG ³:H¶UH ORRNLQJ DW GLIIHUHQW DS SURDFKHVIRUGRLQJZKDWZHGR´ )RUH[DPSOHWKHGHSDUWPHQW is considering changes in how it GHWHUPLQHVFXOYHUWVSHFL¿FDWLRQV IRU¿VKSDVVDJH ³2XU ¿VKHULHV PDQDJHPHQW V\VWHPLVFRQVWDQWO\VWUDSSHGIRU WLPH´ H[SODLQHG 0DOLQ 3LQVN\ DQ HFRORJLVW DQG DVVLVWDQW SUR IHVVRU DW 5XWJHUV 8QLYHUVLW\ LQ DSKRQHLQWHUYLHZLQ'HFHPEHU 7RFKDQJH¿VKHULHVPDQDJH PHQW DV ORFDO VSHFLHV VKLIW LQ UHVSRQVH WR FOLPDWH FKDQJH ³LV KDUG WR GR´ 3LQVN\ VDLG ³2Q WKHRWKHUKDQGLJQRULQJWKHLV sues) isn’t going to make them go away.” 3LQVN\ KLPVHOI LV XVLQJ SOXV \HDUV RI GDWD JDWKHUHG LQ surveys conducted by NOAA DQG &DQDGLDQ ¿VKHULHV WR HVWL PDWH¿VKDEXQGDQFH1RZ3LQ sky is looking to this vast trea- VXUHWURYHRIGDWDWRKHOSSUHGLFW WKHIXWXUHRI¿VKDQG¿VKHULHVLQ DFKDQJLQJODQGVFDSH +HLVWKHOHDGUHVHDUFKHUEH KLQG2FHDQ$GDSWDQRQOLQHGD tabase launched in collaboration with NOAA that looks at how SPORTS SCOREBOARD PREP SCHEDULE SWIMMING TUESDAY Girls Basketball — Seaside at Astoria, 5:30 p.m. Boys Basketball — Seaside at Astoria, 7:15 p.m. HIGH SCHOOLS District 1/4A Meet at Astoria Aquatic Center Girls Team: Valley Catholic 252, Tillamook 229, Newport 216, Scappoose 134, Astoria 130, Seaside 111, Taft 86, Raini- er 55, Banks 11. 200 Medley Relay: 1, Valley Catholic, 2:02.59. 2, Astoria, 2:10.06. 3, Tillamook, 2:14.18. 200 Freestyle: 1, Sarah Krueger, VC, 1:57.29. 2, Clara Cannon, VC, 2:06.07. 3, Allison Bachart, New, 2:08.46. 200 Indivdual Medley: 1, Kathleen Shew, VC, 2:31.0. 2, Shannon Blackburn, New, 2:32.99. 3, Gabie Kreuger, Scp, 2:36.74. 50 Freestyle: 1, Hailey Mo- raes, VC, 25.89. 2, Clarisse Cov- entry, Sea, 26.63. 3, Alexa Ryer, New, 27.86. 100 Butterfly: 1, Sarah Krueger, VC, 1:00.55. 2, Alyssa Harkins, Sea, 1:07.15. 3, Ashley Schacher, Ast, 1:10.84. 100 Freestyle: 1, Kara Putman, Til, 56.91. 2, Hailey Moraes, VC, 58.77. 3, Allison Bachart, New, 58.92. 500 Freestyle: 1, Kathleen Shew, VC, 5:49.21. 2, Elena El- lingson-Cosenza, New, 5:49.75. 3, Sabrina Polman, Til, 6:35.78. 200 Freeestyle Relay: 1, Valley Catholic, 1:48.27. 2, Tillamook, 1:49.77. 3, Newport, 1:52.58. 100 Backstroke: 1, Megan Sparks, Ast, 1:07.44. 2, Emily Reibach, Til, 1:07.59. 3, Lizeth Cortes, Taft, 1:10.43. 100 Breaststroke: 1, Kara Putman, Til, 1:11.76. 2, Stefany Alvarez, Scp, 1:19.27. 3, Shelby Kunert, Til, 1:19.39. 400 Freestyle Relay: 1, Til- lamook, 4:06.80. 2, Newport, 4:10.94. 3, Valley Catholic, 4:13.57. BASKETBALL HIGH SCHOOLS Boys Scappoose 54, Astoria 41 SCP (54): Jacob Wendelschafer 14, McNabb 13, C.Johnson 10, Marcantonio 8, Ford 6, Lohman 3. AST (41): Fridtjof Fremstad 10, Strange 9, Palek 8, Jarrett 8, Fruiht 6, Scroup, Johnson, Keat- ing, Olson, Williams, C.Englund, Loughran, Arnsdorf. Scappoose 14 11 9 20—54 Astoria 10 11 12 8—41 Seaside 48, Valley Catholic 33 VC (33): Kazuma Lane 13, Krishnakumar 6, Haggerty 4, Os- swald 3, Parthasarathy 3, Jones 2, Menkens 2. SEA (48): Jackson Januik 18, Eagon 11, Marston 8, Smith 4, Babb 3, Thompson 2, Lewis 2. Valley Catholic 9 7 7 10—33 Seaside 11 9 16 12—48 TIFFANY BOOTH photo Sea turtles like this one have washed ashore near the mouth of the Columbia River this winter, one of many indications that ocean conditions are unusual. Scientists are trying to separate normal variability in the environment — sometimes called “noise” — from potentially serious long-term trends. VSHFLHV KDYH VKLIWHG RYHU WKH SDVWGHFDGHV7KH\KDYHDOUHDG\ IRXQGWKDWPDQ\ORFDOVSHFLHVRQ both sides of the country are go- LQJGHHSHURUIDUWKHUQRUWKWKDQ usual. The website was only just ODXQFKHGLQ'HFHPEHUEXWLWLV DWRRO3LQVN\DQGKLVWHDPKRSH WRH[SDQGWKLV\HDUVRWKDWPRUH SHRSOH FDQ DFFHVV WKH GDWD DQG understand it in a variety of con- texts. “We’re seeing changes and WKH\¶UH YHU\ UHDO´ 3LQVN\ VDLG ³7KH\¶UHKDSSHQLQJUDSLGO\EXW it’s nothing like we’ll see down the road. … If global warm- LQJVWDUWVKDSSHQLQJHYHQPRUH UDSLGO\,H[SHFWZH¶OOVHHPXFK more dramatic changes and PXFKOHVVSUHGLFWDEOHFKDQJHV´ Economics of change It’s inside that “if” about the rate of change where economics crashes into climate change. In- VLGH WKDW ³LI´ FRPPXQLWLHV FDQ HPHUJHRUGLVDSSHDU :KHQ 3LQVN\ ORRNV DW KRZ the West Coast states have allo- FDWHGFDWFKIRUFRPPHUFLDO¿VK HULHVKHVHHVOLQHVGUDZQDURXQG ¿VKSRSXODWLRQVOLQHVWKDWZHUH accurate and relevant for certain ORFDWLRQVRU\HDUVDJR ³)RUWKHPRVWSDUWDQGWRD ODUJHH[WHQWWKRVHVSHFLHVDUHQ¶W WKHUHDQ\PRUH´KHVDLG A future with climate change looks like a future where tra- GLWLRQDO ¿VKLQJ JURXQGV PRYH elsewhere. ³