June 23, 2017
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Dairy/Livestock
Analysts lay out NAFTA scenarios for dairy
By CAROL RYAN DUMAS
Capital Press
President Donald Trump’s
harsh criticism of the North
American Free Trade Agree-
ment and his threat to with-
draw the U.S. from it, fol-
lowed by a softer position to
renegotiate the deal have left
plenty of uncertainty about
the future of dairy trade with
Mexico and Canada.
Dissolution of the deal is
a significant cause of con-
cern for the three countries’
Carol Ryan Dumas/Capital Press File
dairy industries, which have Dairy cows rest at Si-Ellen family dairy in Jerome, Idaho. Whether
become somewhat interde- NAFTA is renegotiated, rejected or remains the same, it will impact
pendent, according to a new U.S. dairy operators, a Rabobank analysis found.
report by RaboReseach ana-
Loss of those export chan-
lysts. But continuing business is extremely important, the
as usual or renegotiating the analysts said. The majority of nels — particularly to Mexi-
trade pact would also have U.S. dairy exports go to Mex- co, which accounted for 32
implications for the U.S. dairy ico and Canada. In addition, percent of U.S. dairy exports
U.S. milk production is high- in 2016 — would force the
industry.
The report lays out the ly reliant on Mexican labor, U.S. to develop other mar-
likely effects of those three accounting for more than 50 kets, incurring a 2 to 5 percent
percent of dairy farmworkers, increase in export costs and
possibilities.
From the perspective of the most of whom are undocu- resulting in overall lower re-
turns.
U.S. dairy industry, NAFTA mented, the analysts stated.
Losing access to Mexico
and Canada is not as simple
as redirecting products to new
markets, the analysts said.
“The share of U.S. exports
into non-NAFTA markets is
still relatively small and these
markets have different tastes
and preferences, meaning
products need to be tailored
to buyer requirements. There
is also more competition from
other exporters, and longer
distances mean higher trans-
portation costs to contend
with,” the analysts stated.
Loss of Mexican labor,
which could play out in any
scenario without a viable
guestworker program, would
also increase production costs
5 to 7 percent. That’s on top of
a 16 percent increase in labor
costs since 2010.
“It is clear that the U.S.
dairy industry has a lot at stake
when it comes to NAFTA,”
the analysts stated.
If NAFTA were terminat-
ed, U.S. producers would face
lower milk prices, as domes-
tic supply accumulated, they
said.
Under any scenario, the
analysts expect Mexico to
seek diversification in import
suppliers and pursue other
trade deals to avoid over-de-
pendence on the U.S.
As for the effects on trade
with Canada, that country has
remained a protected dairy
market for five decades, but
has relied on small volumes
of U.S. milk on an ad-hoc
basis to help balance its dairy
market.
The U.S. industry has
long called for more access
to Canadian dairy markets,
but recent policy changes are
limiting access even further.
Canada’s new ingredient milk
class price to undercut im-
ports of unfiltered milk has
harmed U.S. exports, with
shipments from Wisconsin,
Minnesota and New York
falling 30 percent in the first
quarter of 2017.
WSDA clears one dairy in Yakima County flood
Probe into second
farm unfinished
By DON JENKINS
Capital Press
The Washington State
Department of Agriculture
has cleared one dairy in
connection with a berm that
gave way under the pressure
of melting snow in March
and led to manure-tainted
water surrounding several
homes and contaminating
drinking water in a Yakima
County community.
WSDA has yet to com-
plete its investigation into
a second dairy involved in
the incident, a department
spokesman said Monday.
A pond formed in a cor-
ner of a field at DeRuyter
Brothers Dairy and pushed
March 1 though a berm built
to keep manure from running
off the property, according to
WSDA.
The water went across
a road and into a compost
pile of manure at Snipes
Dairy. The water then flowed
around homes in Outlook
about a half-mile away, ac-
cording to WSDA. The water
exceeded state standards for
fecal coliform and caused
public health officials to
warn community residents
to drink bottled water. The
water entered one home and
forced the occupants to evac-
uate.
The DeRuyter dairy had
11
applied manure to 121 acres
behind the berm in Novem-
ber, according to WSDA. The
application complied with
state manure-management
rules and with the dairy’s
Confined Animal Feeding
Operation permit.
WSDA will not take any
enforcement action against
the DeRuyter Brothers Dairy.
Investigators
determined
severe weather caused the
breach, not human error, the
spokesman said.
WSDA noted the dairy re-
paired the berm immediately.
The dairy’s owners re-
cently reported selling the
1,000-acre farm. The owners
cited health concerns and
nearing retirement in their
decision to sell.
Courtesy WSDA
Water with high levels of fecal coliform surrounds homes March 1
in Outlook, Wash. The Washington State Department of Agriculture
has cleared one dairy and continues to investigate a second dairy
involved in the incident.
ORLAND, Calif. – Xitlali Gonzalez is the epitome of
student involvement.
A 4-H member from Orland, Gonzalez, 9, raised a
market goat for the Glenn County Fair in May and also
had pygmy goats, a rabbit, does shooting and team
roping, and she’s a pitcher on her youth softball team.
A 4-H’er since she was 5, Gonzalez has a special place
in her heart for anything having to do with animals.
“I was so in love with animals that I was looking to go
in and figure out what I could do with them,” she said.
Gonzalez has been around plenty of animals. Her
father, Manuel Gonzalez, competes in rodeos, and she
started roping when she was 3.
“I loved horses, and I loved to get on them,” she said.
Soon afterward, she started entering the mutton
busting contests at the rodeo her dad was competing in.
Later she started team roping.
“With roping, I help my dad get ready for his rodeos,”
she said.
Gonzalez lives on a farm raising chickens, rabbits,
goats and horses. “I would like to go into farming and
ranching, and be a veterinarian,” she said.
California 4-H wants alumni and friends of the youth
organization to connect with a network of other former
members and supporters -- and perhaps win a national
competition.
The nationwide 4-H Raise Your Hand campaign will
Tim Hearden/Capital Press
enable alumni to get news about 4-H programs in
4-H member Xitlali Gonzalez, 9, of
Orland, Calif., stops for a photo with California and stay in touch with a program that made a
her market goat at the Glenn County difference in their lives.
“Having experienced our programs firsthand, our
Fair in late May. She is involved in
alumni know about the positive impact of 4-H,” said
many different activities in 4-H.
Dairy
Markets
Lee Mielke
Butter price
stays on
roller coaster
By LEE MIELKE
For the Capital Press
C
ash cheese prices lan-
guished in butter’s
shadow last week, es-
pecially June 14, when the
shining star of the “Milky
Way” shot up 12 cents and hit
$2.70 per pound.
But the roller coaster
plunged Friday when 24 cars
traded hands, dropping butter
14 1/2-cents to $2.56, which
was still 8 1/2-cents higher
on the week and 19 1/4-cents
above a year ago when it
jumped almost 17 cents and
peaked for the year at $2.3675.
A total of 49 cars were sold
last week at the CME.
The spot was unchanged
Monday, as traders anticipat-
ed Tuesday morning’s Global
Dairy Trade auction, and then
jumped 7 cents Tuesday to
$2.63.
FC Stone’s Brendan Cur-
ran wrote in his June 14 Insid-
er Opening Bell, “The interna-
tional (butter) market remains
on fire and driving prices here,
which could have lasting ef-
fects if some of the shortages
we’re hearing of come to fru-
ition.”
HighGround Dairy points
out that EU butter prices are
quickly approaching the $3 per
pound level and look poised
to test the CME all-time high
from September 2015 of $3.14
per pound.
Butter sales are strong,
according to Dairy Market
News. With only slight excep-
tions, retail butter demand has
outperformed expectations for
the past month.
Glenda Humiston, vice president of the University of
California’s Agriculture and Natural Resources division
and a 4-H alumna. UCANR is the umbrella organization
for 4-H in California.
Gaining greater involvement from alumni is part of the
4-H program’s goal to increase its membership from
nearly 6 million children nationwide to 10 million by
2025. States have until June 30 to gather alumni for the
network, and the one with the most will win $20,000 for
its programs.
People are considered alumni if they were in a 4-H
club, took part in a 4-H after-school program, served as
a volunteer leader or taught a project, according to a
UCANR news release.
For information, visit
http://4-h.org/raise-your-hand/ .
Tim Hearden/Capital Press
4-H members’ goats are judged at the
Sacramento County Fair on May 27 at Cal
Expo in Sacramento. The organization is
trying to rally support from alumni and
friends through its “Raise Your Hand”
campaign.
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